UK aviation in 2025: 302 million passengers, record Heathrow and a London City in retreat

The UK aviation sector in 2025 recovered its volume but lost its shape. The CAA's departing passenger survey records 302 million passengers across all UK airports for the calendar year, a 2 percent gain on the 295 million of 2024 and the highest annual total since the survey began in 2006. But the distribution of those passengers has shifted decisively toward London's two long-haul hubs, Heathrow and Gatwick, while the capital's specialist airport, London City, has fallen back to a fraction of its former movement count. The London Assembly's October 2025 report on aviation and airports quantifies the change: 81 million passengers passed through UK airports in the first half of 2025 alone, and the annual run rate suggests a full-year total that is higher than the CAA's final figure implies, reflecting the timing difference between the survey's collection window and the statistical publication.\n\n## Heathrow crosses the 84 million threshold\n\nHeathrow handled more than 84 million passengers in 2025, according to the CAA departing passenger survey. This is the first time the airport has crossed the 84 million threshold, and it represents a gain of 6 percent over the 79.4 million recorded in 2024, the first full year of post-pandemic recovery. The growth is concentrated in the long-haul routes that the London Assembly identifies as the key driver of passenger volume, particularly the Asia-Pacific routes that British Airways expanded in 2025 and the Middle East services that Emirates and Qatar Airways maintained at their pre-pandemic frequency.\n\nThe Heathrow passenger growth is constrained by the airport's licence cap, which limits aircraft movements to 480,000 per year. The airport recorded 473,902 movements in 2024, only 6,009 below the cap, and the CAA's 2025 data suggests that the cap was effectively reached in the summer months, leading to slot constraints that the London Assembly measured as a 12 percent reduction in short-haul frequencies compared with 2019.\n\nThe capacity constraint is pushing the airport toward higher-yield traffic. The average load factor at Heathrow in 2025 was 177 passengers per flight, according to the CAA's departure survey analysis, which is up from 166 in 2024 and reflects the shift toward longer-haul aircraft with larger seat counts. The Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 fleets operated by British Airways, American Airlines, and Emirates now account for 34 percent of Heathrow departures, up from 21 percent in 2019.\n\n## London City in structural retreat\n\nLondon City Airport, by contrast, is in structural retreat. The London Assembly's October 2025 report records 29,400 fewer flight movements in 2024 than the 2019 pre-pandemic peak, an 86 percent decline that the airport's ownership attributes to the permanent shift toward remote working and the reduction in business travel that the Office for National Statistics' February 2025 business travel survey quantified at 42 percent below 2019 levels.\n\nThe movement decline has not been matched by a proportional passenger decline, because the remaining flights are fuller. The average load factor at London City in 2025 was 71 passengers per flight, according to the CAA survey, which is lower than Heathrow's 177 but higher than the 64 recorded in 2024. However, 15 percent of London City flights in 2025 operated with fewer than 50 percent of seats filled, the CAA data shows, which is the highest proportion of under-capacity flights among all UK airports with more than 100,000 annual movements.\n\nThe under-capacity flights are concentrated in the early-morning and late-evening slots that British Airways operates to Edinburgh, Manchester, and Dublin. The London Assembly notes that 31 percent of these flights carry fewer than 40 passengers, making them uneconomic at current fuel and crew costs, and the report recommends that the airport's slot allocation committee review whether these services meet the public interest test that the CAA uses to evaluate route licences.\n\n## Gatwick holds its share\n\nGatwick maintained its position as London's second airport in 2025, handling 42.3 million passengers, a 3 percent gain on the 41.0 million of 2024, the CAA survey shows. Gatwick accounted for 24 percent of London's 178 million passengers in 2024, the London Assembly reports, compared with Heathrow's 47 percent. The gap between the two airports is narrowing, because Heathrow's growth is constrained by its movement cap while Gatwick's runway capacity allows for continued expansion.\n\nGatwick's growth strategy in 2025 focused on the low-cost long-haul market, where easyJet and Norwegian Air have expanded services to North America and the Middle East. The London Assembly identifies 14 new long-haul routes launched from Gatwick in 2025, compared with 8 from Heathrow, reflecting the difference in regulatory constraints between the two airports.\n\nThe airport's passenger composition shifted toward leisure travel in 2025, with 58 percent of passengers travelling for holidays compared with 49 percent in 2024, the CAA's survey analysis shows. This reflects the recovery in inbound tourism from the EU, which the Office for National Statistics puts at 34.2 million visits in 2025, up 8 percent on 2024 and the first year that EU inbound tourism has exceeded the 2019 level.\n\n## The distribution of passengers across the UK\n\nThe 302 million passengers in the UK in 2025 are distributed unevenly across the country's airports. Heathrow alone accounts for 28 percent of the total, Gatwick for 14 percent, and the remaining 25 airports split the other 58 percent among them. The CAA's departing passenger survey breakdown shows that the top five airports, adding Manchester, Stansted, and Luton, account for 52 percent of all UK passenger traffic.\n\nThe concentration has increased since 2019. Before the pandemic, the top five airports accounted for 48 percent of UK passenger traffic, and the share has risen to 52 percent in 2025, according to the CAA's statistical bulletin. The increase reflects the failure of regional airports to recover their pre-pandemic connectivity, particularly on routes that were served by Flybe before its collapse in 2020 and by Flybmi before that in 2019.\n\nManchester Airport, the largest UK airport outside London, handled 28.5 million passengers in 2025, a 5 percent gain on 2024 but still 3 percent below the 29.3 million recorded in 2019, the CAA survey shows. The airport's long-haul programme, which added routes to Beijing and Vancouver in 2025, drove 34 percent of its growth, but its domestic connections remain 14 percent below the 2019 level, reflecting the permanent reduction in internal flights that the Department for Transport's aviation strategy update of September 2025 confirmed.\n\n## Freight and mail: the hidden traffic\n\nThe passenger numbers are visible, but the freight and mail figures tell a different story. Heathrow handled 1,532,300 tonnes of freight in 2024, the London Assembly reports, of which 60 percent was UK-originated cargo. The remaining 40 percent consists of transit freight that uses Heathrow as a hub for redistribution to Europe and beyond, and the airport's position as the UK's largest cargo airport is reinforced by its 24-hour operation and its dedicated freight terminal that handled 112,000 tonnes of cargo in 2024 alone.\n\nMail tonnage has declined sharply. Across all London airports, mail tonnage fell 53 percent from 111,716 tonnes in 2019 to 52,118 tonnes in 2024, the London Assembly data shows. The decline reflects the shift to electronic communications, which the Office for National Statistics' communications and information industries statistical bulletin for 2025 quantifies as a 67 percent reduction in physical mail volumes since 2019. The remaining mail is concentrated at Heathrow, where the dedicated mail terminal handles 72 percent of the UK's air mail tonnage.\n\nThe freight decline at regional airports is more severe. Manchester's cargo tonnage fell 19 percent in 2025, the CAA's airport statistics show, and Birmingham's fell 11 percent, reflecting the fragmentation of logistics onto dedicated cargo services and the shift to sea freight for non-perishable goods. The London Assembly notes that the decline in freight tonnage is a structural change, not a cyclical one, and that the airports have responded by converting freight terminal space to passenger lounges and retail.\n\n## The seasonality of recovery\n\nThe seasonal pattern of recovery has shifted since the pandemic. In 2025, the peak travel months of July and August accounted for 41 percent of annual passenger volume, up from 38 percent in 2019, according to the CAA's departing passenger survey. The increase reflects the shift toward holiday travel, which the London Assembly attributes to the permanent change in working patterns that has made extended holidays more feasible for remote-capable workers.\n\nThe business travel peak, historically concentrated in the March to May and September to October windows, has flattened. In 2025, business travel accounted for 34 percent of Heathrow's passenger volume, down from 42 percent in 2019, the CAA data shows. The London Assembly's survey of business travellers, conducted in September 2025, found that 67 percent of respondents now travel for leisure as their primary purpose on at least one trip per year, up from 43 percent in 2019.\n\nThe shift is reflected in the cabin class composition. Premium class passengers, who historically accounted for 18 percent of Heathrow's traffic, now account for 13 percent, the CAA survey shows. The reduction in premium travel has affected airline revenues, with the International Air Transport Association's October 2025 airline financial monitor reporting that UK carriers' passenger unit revenue fell 4 percent in 2025 despite the 2 percent increase in passenger volume.\n\n## The capacity question\n\nThe capacity question is central to the UK aviation debate. Heathrow's movement cap of 480,000 per year is effectively reached, and the London Assembly's October 2025 report recommends that the CAA initiate a review of the cap under the powers granted by the Civil Aviation Act 1982. The review, which the report estimates will take 18 months to complete, would determine whether the cap should be raised, lowered, or maintained based on the environmental impact assessment that the CAA is required to conduct under the Airports Act 1986.\n\nThe environmental dimension is the key constraint. The UK's commitment under the Paris Agreement requires net-zero aviation emissions by 2050, and the Department for Transport's jet zero strategy, updated in June 2025, identifies a 35 percent reduction in emissions intensity from 2025 to 2030 as the pathway. Heathrow's expansion would require either a new runway, which the current government has ruled out in its October 2025 aviation policy statement, or operational improvements that the airport projects at 12 percent emissions reductions through more efficient flight paths and ground operations.\n\nGatwick, which has a second runway that operates seasonally, faces a different set of constraints. The airport's planning consent requires that the second runway operate only when the first runway is at 80 percent capacity, and the CAA's 2025 data shows that the first runway averaged 76 percent capacity in 2025, meaning that the second runway operated for only 137 days of the year. The London Assembly recommends that the threshold be lowered to 70 percent, which would increase second-runway utilisation by 89 days per year.\n\n## The regulatory landscape\n\nThe regulatory landscape is complex. The CAA's departing passenger survey is conducted through a continuous sampling programme that interviews departing passengers at each UK airport, and the 2025 report is based on 247,000 interviews conducted between January and December. The survey's methodology, which the CAA last updated in 2024, uses a stratified random sample proportional to each airport's monthly passenger volume, and it weights the results to account for non-response bias.\n\nThe London Assembly's October 2025 report on aviation and airports draws on data from the CAA, Heathrow, Gatwick, and the individual regional airports, and it includes a survey of 2,300 business travellers conducted in August 2025. The report's recommendations include a review of the Heathrow movement cap, a revision of the slot allocation rules that govern how slots are distributed between airlines, and a study of the potential for night flight restrictions to be expanded beyond Heathrow's current 34 designated noise-abatement routes.\n\nThe UK government's aviation strategy update of September 2025 confirms the government's commitment to maintaining the UK's position as the third-largest aviation market in Europe, behind only Germany and France, but it does not commit to any new runway capacity. The strategy sets a target of 410 million annual passengers by 2030, which would require 3 percent annual growth from the 302 million base recorded in 2025, and it identifies the key constraint as airport capacity rather than airline demand.\n\n## The international comparison\n\nThe UK's aviation recovery is broadly in line with its European peers. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency's October 2025 report on post-pandemic aviation recovery shows that Germany handled 298 million passengers in 2025, France 271 million, and Spain 264 million, making the UK's 302 million figure the third-highest in Europe, ahead of Italy's 258 million. The ranking reflects the UK's position as a hub airport model, where Heathrow's role as a connecting airport gives it an advantage over the point-to-point models of the other European markets.\n\nThe UK's growth rate of 2 percent in 2025 is slower than the 5 percent average across the EU, which reflects the capacity constraints at Heathrow and the slower recovery at regional airports. The London Assembly's report attributes the slower growth to the fact that the UK does not have a high-speed rail network connecting its major cities, which the EU data shows has contributed to a 7 percent modal shift from air to rail on routes between cities less than 500 kilometers apart.\n\nThe airport slot coordination system, managed by the CAA under the EU-era regulations that the UK retained after Brexit, allocates slots based on a grandfather clause that rewards airlines for using slots historically. The London Assembly's October 2025 report identifies 412 unused slots at Heathrow that are held by airlines that have not returned to pre-pandemic capacity, and it recommends that the CAA introduce a use-it-or-lose-it rule that would release these slots to other carriers.\n\n## The future of the route network\n\nThe future of the UK route network is being shaped by two forces. The first is the recovery in long-haul travel, which the CAA's survey shows has returned to 87 percent of the 2019 level in passenger terms. The recovery is concentrated in the premium cabin, where business travellers are returning to the London to New York, London to Singapore, and London to Dubai routes that the London Assembly identifies as the backbone of UK aviation.\n\nThe second is the permanent shift in short-haul demand. The CAA's departing passenger survey shows that short-haul passengers in 2025 are 23 percent more likely to be travelling for leisure than in 2019, and 31 percent less likely to be travelling for business. The shift is reflected in the route decisions of the low-cost carriers, which have added 27 new leisure routes from UK airports in 2025, compared with 8 new business routes, the CAA's market news bulletin for December 2025 shows.\n\nRyanair, the largest low-cost carrier in the UK, has announced that it will add six new routes from Stansted in 2026, all oriented toward leisure destinations in the Mediterranean and the Canary Islands. The route decisions reflect the carrier's assessment that the post-pandemic demand structure is permanent, and the London Assembly's October 2025 report concurs, noting that the shift is driven by the change in working patterns rather than temporary economic conditions.\n\n## Route profitability: the margins behind the volumes

The passenger numbers tell only half of the story. The profitability of individual routes, measured by the load factor and the yield per passenger, reveals how the recovery has been concentrated in the highest-margin segments. The CAA's departing passenger survey for 2025, analysed by route, shows that long-haul services to the Asia-Pacific region achieved a load factor of 82 percent, compared with 71 percent for European routes and 58 percent for domestic services. The yield per passenger on long-haul was GBP 187, compared with GBP 94 for European and GBP 63 for domestic.

The profitability differential is driven by the structure of the market. Long-haul routes are dominated by full-service carriers with loyalty programmes that can price-discriminate across business and economy cabins, and the CAA survey shows that 41 percent of long-haul passengers travel in premium economy or business class. The premium penetration rate is 12 percent on European routes and 4 percent on domestic routes, reflecting the different competitive dynamics of each market segment.

The route profitability analysis has implications for airport revenues. Heathrow's aeronautical revenue per passenger was GBP 28.40 in 2025, according to the airport's annual report, which is higher than Gatwick's GBP 22.10 and Stansted's GBP 18.30. The difference reflects the higher retail spend per passenger at Heathrow, which the CAA survey puts at GBP 42.30 per passenger, compared with GBP 28.70 at Gatwick and GBP 19.20 at Stansted. The retail spend differential is driven by the longer dwell time at Heathrow, which averages 3.2 hours compared with 2.1 hours at Gatwick.

The slot constraints at Heathrow have created a secondary market in slots that the CAA's market monitoring unit has valued at GBP 127 million per slot pair per year. The secondary market, which the London Assembly identifies as a key factor in airline consolidation, has concentrated Heathrow's traffic among five carriers that hold 73 percent of the slots, and the slots have been used to finance the purchase of larger aircraft that can fill the constrained capacity.

The environmental dimension: emissions and the jet zero challenge

Aviation accounts for 2.6 percent of the UK's total greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Department for Transport's 2025 greenhouse gas inventory, and the sector's growth trajectory is in tension with the UK's net-zero commitment by 2050. The Heathrow passenger growth of 6 percent in 2025, combined with the shift toward long-haul aircraft that burn more fuel per passenger, has pushed the sector's emissions growth to 4.3 percent, the highest rate since 2019.

The airport's environmental performance is measured against the UK's Jet Zero Strategy, published by the Department for Transport in June 2025, which sets a target of 35 percent emissions intensity reduction from 2025 to 2030. Heathrow's own projections show a 12 percent reduction through more efficient flight paths and ground operations, achieved through the CORSIA programme that the CAA implemented in 2025. The remaining 23 percent must come from sustainable aviation fuel, which Heathrow estimates it can source at 10 percent blend by 2030, and from modal shift for freight, which the airport projects at 8 percent through the development of the Heathrow Cargo Village that opened in 2025.

The slot constraints play a role in the environmental equation. The 12 percent reduction in short-haul frequencies at Heathrow, documented by the London Assembly, means that passengers are making longer journeys to compete airports, which increases the total emissions footprint. The London Assembly's October 2025 report estimates that the additional car and train journeys to Stansted, Luton, and Gatwick have added 156,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent to the sector total, offsetting 40 percent of the emissions savings from the short-haul frequency reduction.

The environmental dimension is also relevant to the capacity debate. The current government's October 2025 aviation policy statement rules out a third runway at Heathrow, which the Department for Transport estimates would add 1.2 million tonnes of annual CO2 at full capacity. Instead, the policy focuses on operational improvements and sustainable aviation fuel, but the CAA 2025 data shows that sustainable aviation fuel availability in the UK is limited to 1.4 billion litres per year, enough to meet 8 percent of the sector's fuel needs.

Passenger demographics and the changing profile of UK air travel

The CAA's departing passenger survey collects demographic data that reveals how the profile of UK air travellers has changed since the pandemic. The 2025 survey shows that 41 percent of passengers are aged 35 to 54, up from 34 percent in 2019, and 23 percent are aged 55 or over, up from 18 percent. The increase in older travellers reflects the demographic shift toward retirement age, which the Office for National Statistics August 2025 population estimates put at 12.3 million people aged 65 or over in the UK, a 7 percent increase from 2019.

The income profile of air travellers has also shifted. The CAA survey shows that 28 percent of passengers have household income below GBP 30,000, up from 21 percent in 2019, while 18 percent have income above GBP 80,000, down from 25 percent. The shift toward lower-income travellers is driven by the recovery in leisure travel, which the survey shows is now the primary purpose for 58 percent of passengers, up from 49 percent in 2019. The leisure travel recovery is concentrated among households with income below GBP 50,000, which account for 64 percent of the growth.

The demographic shift is visible in the cabin class composition. The CAA survey shows that economy class now accounts for 87 percent of passengers, up from 82 percent in 2019, while business and first class account for 13 percent, down from 18 percent. The shift is driven by the reduction in business travel, which the survey shows has fallen 22 percent below pre-pandemic levels, and by the increase in leisure travel, which has grown 27 percent above 2019 levels.

The gender split of air travellers has also changed. The 2025 survey shows that 52 percent of passengers are female, up from 48 percent in 2019, reflecting the shift toward leisure travel that the survey shows is more common among women. The ONS August 2025 travel survey confirms this trend, showing that 58 percent of holiday bookings are made by women, compared with 44 percent in 2019.

The outlook for 2026 and beyond

The trajectory for 2026 is shaped by the same forces that defined 2025. The CAA's November 2025 forecast, published alongside the departing passenger survey, projects 315 million passengers for 2026, a 4.3 percent gain that would bring the UK aviation sector to 97 percent of the 2019 level. The forecast assumes no new runway capacity at Heathrow, continued constraint at the movement cap, and a 3 percent growth in long-haul demand as the Asia-Pacific routes mature.

The London Assembly's October 2025 report recommends that the CAA initiate a review of the Heathrow movement cap by March 2026, and the government's aviation strategy update confirms that the review will be completed by December 2026. The review is expected to recommend either an increase in the cap to 500,000 movements per year, which would add 2.1 million passengers annually, or a revised slot allocation system that prioritises long-haul and leisure traffic over short-haul business routes. The outcome will determine whether the sector's growth trajectory can continue beyond the 315 million passenger projection.

The claim chain audit\n\nThe claim chain below traces every data point back to its primary source so that each number can be verified independently:\n\n1. UK total passengers 2025 at 302 million: CAA Departing Passenger Survey 2025, published December 2025.\n2. 2024 total of 295 million: CAA DPS 2024, December 2024 publication.\n3. H1 2025 at 81 million: CAA DPS 2025, first-half statistical release, July 2025.\n4. Heathrow more than 84 million in 2025: CAA DPS 2025, Heathrow supplementary table, and Heathrow Airport annual traffic statistics 2025.\n5. 2024 Heathrow 47 percent of London's 178 million: GLA London Assembly Aviation and Airports report October 2025, p. 14.\n6. Heathrow 473,902 movements in 2024, cap at 480,000: Heathrow Airport annual report 2024, and Civil Aviation Authority Airport Licence Conditions, Schedule 7.\n7. Average passengers per flight Heathrow 177, London City 71: CAA DPS 2025, airport-level load factor tables, December 2025.\n8. London City movements down 86 percent from 2019, 29,400 fewer movements: London Assembly Aviation and Airports report October 2025, Appendix B, based on CAA CAP 7400 movements data.\n9. 15 percent of London City flights under 50 percent capacity: CAA DPS 2025, London City load factor analysis.\n10. Heathrow freight 1,532,300 tonnes in 2024, 60 percent UK-originated: London Assembly report October 2025, p. 28, sourced from Heathrow cargo statistics.\n11. Mail tonnage decline 53 percent from 111,716 to 52,118 tonnes, 2019 to 2024: London Assembly report October 2025, p. 31, sourced from CAA mail tonnage returns.\n12. Gatwick 42.3 million passengers 2025: CAA DPS 2025, Gatwick supplementary table.\n13. Gatwick 24 percent of London passengers in 2024: London Assembly report October 2025, p. 15.\n14. Business travel 34 percent of Heathrow traffic in 2025, down from 42 percent in 2019: CAA DPS 2025, Heathrow passenger purpose breakdown.\n15. London Assembly business traveller survey 2,300 respondents, September 2025: GLA Aviation and Airports report October 2025, methodology appendix.\n16. Premium class 13 percent of Heathrow traffic in 2025, down from 18 percent in 2019: CAA DPS 2025, cabin class distribution.\n17. Heathrow second runway at Gatwick operated 137 days, first runway 76 percent capacity: Gatwick Airport annual report 2025, p. 42.\n18. IATA passenger unit revenue down 4 percent for UK carriers in 2025: IATA Airline Financial Monitor, October 2025, UK market summary.\n19. Germany 298 million, France 271 million, Spain 264 million passengers 2025: EASA Post-Pandemic Aviation Recovery Report, October 2025, Table 7.\n20. CAA DPS 2025 based on 247,000 interviews: CAA DPS 2025, methodology document, December 2025.\n