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Geopolitics

The round trip: how the oil market absorbed the largest supply shock in its history and ended the summer near $100 anyway

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade in early March 2026 — a disruption the International Energy Agency called the largest in the history of the oil market. Six weeks later Brent crude had peaked at $118; ten weeks after that it was back below $71, the pre-war price, even though measured oil flows through the strait never exceeded about 40 percent of normal. This report reconstructs the price arc and the physical flows from primary data, quantifies the emergency measures that bridged the gap — a record 400-million-barrel IEA release — and documents what did not round-trip: war-risk insurance, transit counts, and the price of moving a barrel out of the Gulf. The evidence supports a specific conclusion about what oil prices actually measured this year, and it is not the volume of oil moving through the strait.

By Muhammad Mehdi · 19 September 2026 · 29 min read
Economy & Markets

The 9,754-tonne decade and a half: what the world's central banks have actually done with gold since 2010

Central banks bought 9,754 tonnes of gold between 2010 and 2025 — roughly one-fifth of everything mined in that period — after spending the previous two decades selling. The buying has continued into 2026 at record quarterly volumes, against a gold price that set an all-time high of about $5,600 an ounce in January. This report assembles the official-sector record from the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends and IMF reserve data, computes what the accumulated metal is worth under three different prices, separates what the reported volumes can and cannot measure, and tests the popular interpretation — a flight from the dollar — against the IMF's own reserve-composition data. The evidence supports a narrower and more interesting conclusion than either the gold bulls or the dollar's cheerleaders allow.

By Muhammad Mehdi · 19 September 2026 · 45 min read
Technology & AI

The $733 billion year: measuring the AI infrastructure boom against its own history

The four largest hyperscalers plan $720-745 billion of capital expenditure in 2026 - more than double 2025, and, as a mechanical comparison, close to twice the peak-year intensity of the entire 1990s telecom boom relative to the US economy. This report assembles the spending record from company filings, computes what the boom costs relative to the companies' own revenues, follows the money into hardware, buildings and electricity, and examines how it is financed - how much still comes from operations, how much is now borrowed or leased, and what the record says about how such build-outs resolve.

By Muhammad Mehdi · 19 September 2026 · 51 min read
GeopoliticsDeveloping

The House Has Passed the Russia Oil Tariff Bill: What the 100% Threat Means for India and China

Congress passed the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 16 by a 262-159 vote, letting Washington punish the biggest buyers of Russian oil with tariffs of up to 100%. India reacted within a day. The interesting question is not whether the bill becomes law - it now awaits the President's signature - but how its mechanism actually bites, and why it was softened from 500% to 100% on the way.

By Muhammad Mehdi · 18 September 2026 · 5 min read
Economy & MarketsDeveloping

Bank of Japan raises rates to 1.25%: what the 31-year-high decision means for the yen, global markets and Japan's economy

Japan's central bank lifted its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September 2026 — the highest since 1995 — two days after the US Federal Reserve raised its own range to 3.75%-4.00%. Equal-sized moves left the dollar-yen interest gap unchanged, which is why the yen barely moved. The decision, the two dissents inside the room, and the road that produced both, explained.

By Muhammad Mehdi · 18 September 2026 · 19 min read

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